FeldmanCousins: ntoys per point = 499 FeldmanCousins: nEvents per toy will fluctuate about expectation will use global observables for unconditional ensemble RooArgSet:: = (nominalLumi,nom_alpha_syst1,nom_alpha_syst2,nom_alpha_syst3,nom_gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0,nom_gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1) === Using the following for ModelConfig === Observables: RooArgSet:: = (obs_x_channel1,channelCat) Parameters of Interest: RooArgSet:: = (SigXsecOverSM) Nuisance Parameters: RooArgSet:: = (alpha_syst2,alpha_syst3,gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0,gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1) Global Observables: RooArgSet:: = (nominalLumi,nom_alpha_syst1,nom_alpha_syst2,nom_alpha_syst3,nom_gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0,nom_gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1) PDF: RooSimultaneous::simPdf[ indexCat=channelCat channel1=model_channel1 ] = 0.190787 FeldmanCousins: Model has nuisance parameters, will do profile construction FeldmanCousins: # points to test = 12 [#1] INFO:Eval -- lookup index = 0 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 1/12 total MC = 499 this test stat = 0 SigXsecOverSM=0.125 alpha_syst2=0.61993 alpha_syst3=0.233335 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=1.03212 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=1.04741 [-inf, 0.329584] in interval = 1 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 2/12 total MC = 499 this test stat = 0 SigXsecOverSM=0.375 alpha_syst2=0.458263 alpha_syst3=0.183235 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=1.02329 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=1.03422 [-inf, 0.888912] in interval = 1 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 3/12 total MC = 499 this test stat = 0 SigXsecOverSM=0.625 alpha_syst2=0.292479 alpha_syst3=0.126723 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=1.01484 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=1.02374 [-inf, 1.39758] in interval = 1 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 4/12 total MC = 499 this test stat = 0 SigXsecOverSM=0.875 alpha_syst2=0.130656 alpha_syst3=0.0953602 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=1.00646 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=1.01288 [-inf, 1.51992] in interval = 1 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 5/12 total MC = 499 this test stat = 0.000124169 SigXsecOverSM=1.125 alpha_syst2=-0.0146474 alpha_syst3=0.0173394 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=0.999267 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=1.003 [-inf, 1.54198] in interval = 1 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 6/12 total MC = 499 this test stat = 0.0913576 SigXsecOverSM=1.375 alpha_syst2=-0.15078 alpha_syst3=-0.0572169 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=0.99238 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=0.993157 [-inf, 1.78377] in interval = 1 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 7/12 total MC = 499 this test stat = 0.349003 SigXsecOverSM=1.625 alpha_syst2=-0.294555 alpha_syst3=-0.0932947 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=0.985516 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=0.983192 [-inf, 1.66921] in interval = 1 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 8/12 total MC = 499 this test stat = 0.767692 SigXsecOverSM=1.875 alpha_syst2=-0.424297 alpha_syst3=-0.146312 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=0.979248 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=0.973447 [-inf, 1.5144] in interval = 1 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 9/12 total MC = 499 this test stat = 1.34313 SigXsecOverSM=2.125 alpha_syst2=-0.546305 alpha_syst3=-0.198112 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=0.973364 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=0.963869 [-inf, 1.30266] in interval = 0 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 10/12 total MC = 499 this test stat = 2.07172 SigXsecOverSM=2.375 alpha_syst2=-0.66027 alpha_syst3=-0.248685 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=0.967841 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=0.954463 [-inf, 1.5387] in interval = 0 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 11/12 total MC = 499 this test stat = 2.9476 SigXsecOverSM=2.625 alpha_syst2=-0.766369 alpha_syst3=-0.29799 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=0.962657 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=0.945235 [-inf, 1.30108] in interval = 0 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 12/12 total MC = 499 this test stat = 3.96711 SigXsecOverSM=2.875 alpha_syst2=-0.865262 alpha_syst3=-0.345965 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=0.95779 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=0.936192 [-inf, 1.35603] in interval = 0 [#1] INFO:Eval -- 8 points in interval 95% interval on SigXsecOverSM is : [0.125, 1.875] [#1] INFO:Minimization -- p.d.f. provides expected number of events, including extended term in likelihood. [#1] INFO:Minimization -- Including the following constraint terms in minimization: (lumiConstraint,alpha_syst1Constraint,alpha_syst2Constraint,alpha_syst3Constraint,gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0_constraint,gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1_constraint) [#1] INFO:Minimization -- The global observables are not defined , normalize constraints with respect to the parameters (Lumi,SigXsecOverSM,alpha_syst1,alpha_syst2,alpha_syst3,gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0,gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1) [#1] INFO:Fitting -- RooAbsPdf::fitTo(simPdf) fixing normalization set for coefficient determination to observables in data [#1] INFO:Fitting -- using generic CPU library compiled with no vectorizations [#1] INFO:Fitting -- Creation of NLL object took 538.413 μs [#1] INFO:Minimization -- RooProfileLL::evaluate(RooEvaluatorWrapper_Profile[SigXsecOverSM]) Creating instance of MINUIT [#1] INFO:Fitting -- RooAddition::defaultErrorLevel(nll_simPdf_obsData) Summation contains a RooNLLVar, using its error level [#1] INFO:Minimization -- RooProfileLL::evaluate(RooEvaluatorWrapper_Profile[SigXsecOverSM]) determining minimum likelihood for current configurations w.r.t all observable [#1] INFO:Minimization -- [fitFCN] No discrete parameters, performing continuous minimization only [#1] INFO:Minimization -- RooProfileLL::evaluate(RooEvaluatorWrapper_Profile[SigXsecOverSM]) minimum found at (SigXsecOverSM=1.12136) .[#1] INFO:Minimization -- [fitFCN] No discrete parameters, performing continuous minimization only Will use these parameter points to generate pseudo data for bkg only 1) 0x8920cb0 RooRealVar:: alpha_syst2 = 0.710958 +/- 0.914123 L(-5 - 5) "alpha_syst2" 2) 0x89211c0 RooRealVar:: alpha_syst3 = 0.261478 +/- 0.929174 L(-5 - 5) "alpha_syst3" 3) 0x89216d0 RooRealVar:: gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0 = 1.03677 +/- 0.0462911 L(0 - 1.25) "gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0" 4) 0x8921be0 RooRealVar:: gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1 = 1.05318 +/- 0.0761263 L(0 - 1.5) "gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1" 5) 0x89220f0 RooRealVar:: SigXsecOverSM = 0 +/- 0 L(0 - 3) B(12) "SigXsecOverSM" -2 sigma band 0 -1 sigma band 0.105 [Power Constraint)] median of band 0.855 +1 sigma band 1.605 +2 sigma band 2.085 observed 95% upper-limit 1.875 CLb strict [P(toy>obs|0)] for observed 95% upper-limit 0.966667 CLb inclusive [P(toy>=obs|0)] for observed 95% upper-limit 0.966667