Found data and ModelConfig: === Using the following for ModelConfig === Observables: RooArgSet:: = (obs_x_channel1,channelCat) Parameters of Interest: RooArgSet:: = (SigXsecOverSM) Nuisance Parameters: RooArgSet:: = (alpha_syst2,alpha_syst3,gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0,gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1) Global Observables: RooArgSet:: = (nominalLumi,nom_alpha_syst1,nom_alpha_syst2,nom_alpha_syst3,nom_gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0,nom_gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1) PDF: RooSimultaneous::simPdf[ indexCat=channelCat channel1=model_channel1 ] = 0.190787 FeldmanCousins: ntoys per point = 499 FeldmanCousins: nEvents per toy will fluctuate about expectation will use global observables for unconditional ensemble RooArgSet:: = (nominalLumi,nom_alpha_syst1,nom_alpha_syst2,nom_alpha_syst3,nom_gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0,nom_gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1) === Using the following for ModelConfig === Observables: RooArgSet:: = (obs_x_channel1,channelCat) Parameters of Interest: RooArgSet:: = (SigXsecOverSM) Nuisance Parameters: RooArgSet:: = (alpha_syst2,alpha_syst3,gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0,gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1) Global Observables: RooArgSet:: = (nominalLumi,nom_alpha_syst1,nom_alpha_syst2,nom_alpha_syst3,nom_gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0,nom_gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1) PDF: RooSimultaneous::simPdf[ indexCat=channelCat channel1=model_channel1 ] = 0.190787 FeldmanCousins: Model has nuisance parameters, will do profile construction FeldmanCousins: # points to test = 20 [#1] INFO:Eval -- lookup index = 0 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 1/20 total MC = 499 this test stat = 1.54009 SigXsecOverSM=0.075 alpha_syst2=0.656138 alpha_syst3=0.244593 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=1.03396 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=1.04971 [-inf, 1.25525] in interval = 0 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 2/20 total MC = 499 this test stat = 1.12265 SigXsecOverSM=0.225 alpha_syst2=0.562087 alpha_syst3=0.218282 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=1.02843 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=1.04073 [-inf, 1.40915] in interval = 1 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 3/20 total MC = 499 this test stat = 0.7727 SigXsecOverSM=0.375 alpha_syst2=0.457123 alpha_syst3=0.184027 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=1.02317 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=1.03439 [-inf, 1.50661] in interval = 1 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 4/20 total MC = 499 this test stat = 0.488747 SigXsecOverSM=0.525 alpha_syst2=0.356387 alpha_syst3=0.15007 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=1.01805 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=1.02809 [-inf, 1.65905] in interval = 1 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 5/20 total MC = 499 this test stat = 0.270286 SigXsecOverSM=0.675 alpha_syst2=0.259065 alpha_syst3=0.116822 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=1.01309 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=1.02183 [-inf, 1.78779] in interval = 1 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 6/20 total MC = 499 this test stat = 0.116895 SigXsecOverSM=0.825 alpha_syst2=0.159293 alpha_syst3=0.099895 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=1.00789 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=1.01569 [-inf, 1.97144] in interval = 1 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 7/20 total MC = 499 this test stat = 0.0272646 SigXsecOverSM=0.975 alpha_syst2=0.0707634 alpha_syst3=0.0527046 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=1.00355 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=1.00975 [-inf, 2.23383] in interval = 1 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 8/20 total MC = 499 this test stat = 0.000124673 SigXsecOverSM=1.125 alpha_syst2=-0.0163928 alpha_syst3=0.00771931 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=0.999196 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=1.00336 [-inf, 1.96757] in interval = 1 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 9/20 total MC = 499 this test stat = 0.0345285 SigXsecOverSM=1.275 alpha_syst2=-0.0986159 alpha_syst3=-0.0389895 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=0.995081 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=0.997784 [-inf, 2.05116] in interval = 1 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 10/20 total MC = 499 this test stat = 0.129724 SigXsecOverSM=1.425 alpha_syst2=-0.187205 alpha_syst3=-0.0491003 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=0.990771 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=0.991205 [-inf, 2.19007] in interval = 1 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 11/20 total MC = 499 this test stat = 0.284455 SigXsecOverSM=1.575 alpha_syst2=-0.26955 alpha_syst3=-0.0814599 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=0.986772 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=0.985267 [-inf, 1.86276] in interval = 1 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 12/20 total MC = 499 this test stat = 0.497383 SigXsecOverSM=1.725 alpha_syst2=-0.349331 alpha_syst3=-0.113443 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=0.982921 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=0.979383 [-inf, 2.01379] in interval = 1 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 13/20 total MC = 499 this test stat = 0.767683 SigXsecOverSM=1.875 alpha_syst2=-0.426406 alpha_syst3=-0.145041 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=0.979212 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=0.973556 [-inf, 2.26953] in interval = 1 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 14/20 total MC = 499 this test stat = 1.09484 SigXsecOverSM=2.025 alpha_syst2=-0.500642 alpha_syst3=-0.176255 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=0.975641 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=0.967788 [-inf, 2.17449] in interval = 1 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 15/20 total MC = 499 this test stat = 1.47726 SigXsecOverSM=2.175 alpha_syst2=-0.570354 alpha_syst3=-0.210605 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=0.9722 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=0.962111 [-inf, 2.14316] in interval = 1 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 16/20 total MC = 499 this test stat = 1.91416 SigXsecOverSM=2.325 alpha_syst2=-0.638736 alpha_syst3=-0.240819 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=0.968884 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=0.956461 [-inf, 1.70746] in interval = 0 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 17/20 total MC = 499 this test stat = 2.40455 SigXsecOverSM=2.475 alpha_syst2=-0.704252 alpha_syst3=-0.270579 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=0.96569 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=0.950877 [-inf, 1.71386] in interval = 0 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 18/20 total MC = 499 this test stat = 2.94758 SigXsecOverSM=2.625 alpha_syst2=-0.767005 alpha_syst3=-0.299874 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=0.962614 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=0.945359 [-inf, 1.36182] in interval = 0 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 19/20 total MC = 499 this test stat = 3.54228 SigXsecOverSM=2.775 alpha_syst2=-0.82716 alpha_syst3=-0.328689 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=0.959653 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=0.939908 [-inf, 1.38914] in interval = 0 NeymanConstruction: Prog: 20/20 total MC = 499 this test stat = 4.18788 SigXsecOverSM=2.925 alpha_syst2=-0.884931 alpha_syst3=-0.357011 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0=0.9568 gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1=0.934526 [-inf, 1.36873] in interval = 0 [#1] INFO:Eval -- 14 points in interval 95% interval on SigXsecOverSM is : [0.225, 2.175] [#1] INFO:Minimization -- p.d.f. provides expected number of events, including extended term in likelihood. [#1] INFO:Minimization -- Including the following constraint terms in minimization: (lumiConstraint,alpha_syst1Constraint,alpha_syst2Constraint,alpha_syst3Constraint,gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0_constraint,gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1_constraint) [#1] INFO:Minimization -- The global observables are not defined , normalize constraints with respect to the parameters (Lumi,SigXsecOverSM,alpha_syst1,alpha_syst2,alpha_syst3,gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0,gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1) [#1] INFO:Fitting -- RooAbsPdf::fitTo(simPdf) fixing normalization set for coefficient determination to observables in data [#1] INFO:Fitting -- using generic CPU library compiled with no vectorizations [#1] INFO:Fitting -- Creation of NLL object took 529.052 μs [#1] INFO:Minimization -- RooProfileLL::evaluate(RooEvaluatorWrapper_Profile[SigXsecOverSM]) Creating instance of MINUIT [#1] INFO:Fitting -- RooAddition::defaultErrorLevel(nll_simPdf_obsData) Summation contains a RooNLLVar, using its error level [#1] INFO:Minimization -- RooProfileLL::evaluate(RooEvaluatorWrapper_Profile[SigXsecOverSM]) determining minimum likelihood for current configurations w.r.t all observable [#1] INFO:Minimization -- [fitFCN] No discrete parameters, performing continuous minimization only [#1] INFO:Minimization -- RooProfileLL::evaluate(RooEvaluatorWrapper_Profile[SigXsecOverSM]) minimum found at (SigXsecOverSM=1.12313) .[#1] INFO:Minimization -- [fitFCN] No discrete parameters, performing continuous minimization only Will use these parameter points to generate pseudo data for bkg only 1) 0x6640540 RooRealVar:: alpha_syst2 = 0.710945 +/- 0.914123 L(-5 - 5) "alpha_syst2" 2) 0x6640aa0 RooRealVar:: alpha_syst3 = 0.261483 +/- 0.929174 L(-5 - 5) "alpha_syst3" 3) 0x6641000 RooRealVar:: gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0 = 1.03677 +/- 0.0462911 L(0 - 1.25) "gamma_stat_channel1_bin_0" 4) 0x6641560 RooRealVar:: gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1 = 1.05318 +/- 0.0761262 L(0 - 1.5) "gamma_stat_channel1_bin_1" 5) 0x6641ac0 RooRealVar:: SigXsecOverSM = 0 +/- 0 L(0 - 3) B(20) "SigXsecOverSM" -2 sigma band 0 -1 sigma band 0.495 [Power Constraint)] median of band 1.095 +1 sigma band 1.545 +2 sigma band 1.995 observed 95% upper-limit 2.175 CLb strict [P(toy>obs|0)] for observed 95% upper-limit 0.975 CLb inclusive [P(toy>=obs|0)] for observed 95% upper-limit 0.975